Tuesday, February 22, 2011

The Associate Problem

"To be or not to be" allowed is the question when it comes to Associate member participation in international cricket tournaments. The Australian Cricket Board and the ICC are not very popular with the associate members for their strong stance in curtailing the playing field to 10 teams in the 2015 World Cup.

Although the move may seem harsh on the associate members, it makes a lot of business sense. The ACB, unlike the BCCI, does not have an inexhaustible trove of sponsors. Moreover, there are far fewer sporting arenas for international cricket down under as opposed to India. Simply put, the ACB cannot afford to see more than 50% of the matches being mismatches and being watched by a handful of patrons in arenas like the MCG that seat more than 100000.

Of course, there are a couple of ways around this. Firstly, the ICC could make the World Cup a 16 team tournament with 4 groups of 4 each with the top 2 qualifying to the next round. In the next round the 8 qualifiers could be put in two groups of 4 with the top two in each group playing the semi finals. That would bring the total matches to 39 and still allowing more teams to participate.

From an economic perspective, the cricket boards could agree to host some group matches on club grounds. This is not something new. Before cricket started rolling in the big bucks, international matches were held at club grounds. If you don't believe me, check the ground where Kapil Dev made his epic 175* in the 1983 World Cup. Given modern broadcasting requirements, moving camera equipment to small grounds could be a hurdle. This, is however a logistics issue and not a technical hurdle. If the club grounds are chosen in and around a metropolis (Melbourne for example has a whole lot of such grounds like the one India played their warm up match on their last tour down under), the production teams could still move to and from such smaller grounds (India played their warm up at an oval with moderate stands and less than a couple of kilometers from the MCG!!)

Even small club grounds could have temporary tents set up for patrons and bring the cost of hosting the match down to a fraction of hosting it in a place like the MCG. The players' match fees could be footed by their respective boards with the ICC taking care of paying the Associate members' teams. In this way, the host nation could survive a whole lot of mismatches during the tournament from a monetary perspective.

The other risk is that of having a test playing nation being upset by a minnow at the group stage. Now, that might be a big threat when you have groups of 3 (ala 2007 World Cup) but with groups of 4, the risk is significantly reduced. With group matches starting simultaneously (ala Fifa world cup), every match could be afforded a reserve day in case of natural calamities.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Its ON!!

My last post sounded a warning to India about their World Cup opener. I felt, like many cricket pundits that the opener was more than a banana skin for the pre-tournament favorites, India.

However, I hadn't counted on Virender Sehwag treating this game as a revenge game. If I had known that, I would have never been so naive to sound out my warning to India. Now, that apocryphal banana skin has been dumped where it belongs - in the dust bin. Bangladesh have been appropriately down-sized as far as their tournament aspirations are concerned. Its a long tournament and Bangladesh still look good to make the quarter finals at the expense of West Indies or even England.

India still proved that their major handicap in this tournament would be the lack of an out and out strike bowler up front with some pace! It is for this very reason that I do not see India as my favorite to go all the way. Yes, India will make the semis along with Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka. Pakistan are the dark horses in this tournament but they are too mercurial to make my principal semi final line-up.

I am going to hang my neck out and make a bold prediction - Australia will not make it to the finals. They will falter in the semis. I know this prediction may come back to haunt me but I just feel, the Australia batting no longer evokes fear and inevitability in their opponents. Moreover, Australia no longer have a Warne to win them games from hopeless situations (ala WC96 semi final and WC99 semi final). I will not overlook their loss to India in the warm up match - that loss was most un-Australian as losses go - even if it was only a warm up! The team that could lose such a match, even in practice, does not seem likely to go all the way.

The team with the best balance is undoubtedly, South Africa. However, the Proteas have often flattered to deceive but this time, with a good spin attack (Johan Botha and Imran Tahir), I reckon, the Proteas to be the favorite to win the cup.

My money for the bowler of the series is on Brett Lee while the batsman of the series is more open to debate. Amla could be the one or even Kallis. I do hope, SRT will play some more memorable innings as he has so often done in bygone world cups.

Undoubtedly, I want India and especially SRT to win the cup. I would give anything to see a World Cup medal adorning the neck of my favorite cricketer, SRT. However, the mind does not agree with heart - cold logic suggests that India are extremely batting heavy - they have the weakest new ball attack amongst all the test playing nations.

From a team balance perspective, I expect the Proteas to go all the way. However, cricket, like any other sport is not pure skill and silverware isn't amenable to sporting logic. The silverware ultimately rests on the shoulders of those that want it most. It is that unsatiable hunger for the ultimate prize that finally claims the prize. Based on the evidence of the opening game, the Indian team seems like one on a single minded mission - to correct the wrongs of the last two world cups.

Undoubtedly, every other team is equally driven to win the trophy, but the initial evidence suggests that India just want it a wee bit more!! Ultimately, I hope my heart triumphs over the mind and the sheer support of more than 1 billion hearts brings triumph to India in WC2011.