FINAL-ly..... the final!

If a cricket fan were to undergo sensory deprivation for an year and, at the end of it, be given the information that "at the business end of a multinational tournament, India had beaten Australia and Pakistan back to back", the fan's question (while battling fatigue of course!!) would be - 'What silverware did India win?'

Yet, as far as WC2011 is concerned, the fan would be wrong. India are just in the final, up against the team with the best "performing balance" in this tournament. To assess the strengths of both teams going into the final, let us recap a little bit more ...

My pre-tournament favorites were South Africa due to their excellent all-round form and balance. However, their most important skill seems to be lacking between their ears and I, along with many millions more, was proven wrong in backing South Africa. I had predicted that Australia would not make it to the finals because I thought India would clash with them and beat them in the semis. As it happened, India hastened their departure, a stage early!

Given the quarter final clashes, my favorite for the final was an India v South Africa clash. When South Africa lost to NZ, I firmly believed we would have a Ind v SL final in Mumbai. After South Africa, the team with the next best balance for playing in the subcontinent is Sri Lanka (with Angelo Matthews or Perera in the playing eleven). It is for this simple reason that I put Sri Lanka as slight favorites (55 to 45) against India in the final. As always, there's more to my assessment that mere team balance, but I feel its the balance that best encapsulates my assessment!

For starters, Sri Lanka have knocked India out of world cups on two occasions. One of them was the gut wrenching, heart breaking semi final at the Eden Gardens in 1996. The other, more recent one was the group clash in 2007. In addition to this, India have been beaten by Sri Lanka in finals such as the Asia Cup final. Right now, they have three quality spinners who have that extra dimension called mystery to their bowling.

Of course, the Indian batting will not be mystified by Murali or Mendis. Herath, on the other hand will be a slight mystery to the Indian batting because, I don't think the Indians have faced him in the last couple of years. Having seen how the great SRT failed to read Ajmal in the semis, I am a little worried by the Sri Lankan spin attack. Who can forget that famous match when Murali skittled the famous Indian batting for an abysmal 54?

Now for the permutations - If Sri Lanka do not play 3 spinners and choose to go with Malinga, Kulasekara and one of Matthews or Kapugedera, India will be happy because that will mean - no Herath and hence, no novelty for India.

Both India and Srilanka have struggled with a quality 2nd and 3rd seamer. The good thing for Sri Lanka is that their 2nd and 3rd seamers are better batsmen than their Indian counterparts which lends the better balance to Sri Lanka.

India, for their part, need to decide their combination after looking at the pitch. Seeing the NZ vs Sri lanka match, I feel, 3 spinners including Yuvi is the way to go. I would risk Piyush Chawla over Ashwin because a leg spinner is the only bowler that Sri Lanka do not have. If Piyush is ready to open the bowling, he could play!

I know what I just wrote sounds a bit blasphemous but Dhoni is known for his blasphemous masterstrokes as captain. Ultimately, the game will come down to the composure of captains and their charges. Both captains are evenly matched with Dhoni starting to become just that shade more attacking than Sanga and this is good news for India. When it comes to the teams, I must say, that middle order wobble against NZ and India's composure on the field against Pakistan tells me that India, as a whole, have the edge in handling pressure and nerves.

The Toss and Match Dynamics
Given that India has not played in the new Wankhede, I reckon, Dhoni would do well to lose the toss! If India bat first, they will have the opportunity to put the match out of Lanka's reach in the first half itself ala Australia in 2003 and 2007. If Lanka bat first, they will have this privilege against a weak Indian new ball attack.

My player pick
Sehwag treated the opener against Bangladesh as a revenge match from the 2007 world cup. If that is so, he should remind himself that it was Sri Lanka who actually eliminated India in that world cup. I am sure he will treat this final as another revenge match. For this very simple reason, I pick him as India's player to watch. He has the ability to put the game beyond Sri lanka and help SRT en-route to his maiden world cup triumph. Moreover, Sehwag has the experience of big runs in his previous World Cup final in 2003.

The Bottom line
As I wrote at the beginning of this tournament, the silverware belongs to the team that wants it a wee bit more. I still hope my heart wins over the mind and overcomes slightly skewed odds to help me declare on the 3rd - We are world cup Champions!!

O India, May the fours be with you ..... always!